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Prediction for CME (2023-08-18T22:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-18T22:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26563/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3, as well as in STEREO A COR2 difference imagery. This CME overlaps with the CME first seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-08-18T19:48Z. The source of this CME is a C3.0 class flare from AR13409 (~N21W42) and associated filament eruption. The filament appears to have two parts erupt, an initial little arch of filament material related to the start of the flare and a more thick stream of filament material lifting off while the flare is nearing its peak. This is best seen in GOES SUVI 304, but is also visible in SDO/AIA 304 and 193 imagery. There is no obvious arrival across all solar wind parameters.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-22T22:30Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: T2023-08-19 02:40
Radial velocity (km/s):498
Longitude (deg):20
Latitude (deg):49
Half-angular width (deg):33

Notes: Two overlapping CMEs C3 associated with flares and small DSFs modelled as one event. First visible in LASCO C2 18/2012UT. North west directed CME, which appeared to possibly slow in later coronagraph imagery.

Lead Time: 47.57 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-08-20T22:56Z

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